The artificial intelligence market may be on the cusp of one of the most significant moments in its history. OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for their stock market debuts, which, according to media reports, could value each company at over 1 trillion dollars. If these plans come to fruition, they will join the ranks of the largest IPOs in the history of the technology sector.
Such high valuations are not unheard of in today’s market. Nvidia is currently worth around $5 trillion, Alphabet over $4 trillion, and Microsoft nearly $3 trillion. The difference, however, is that tech giants generate tens of billions of dollars in profits annually, whilst companies developing the most advanced AI models still operate primarily on the basis of the promise of future revenues.
OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, has for months been tipped as a candidate for the biggest tech IPO in recent years. According to market reports, the company has begun formal preparations for its debut, and a valuation of around one trillion dollars is one of the scenarios being considered.
Anthropic, the creator of the Claude model, is following a similar path. The company is currently among the world’s highest-valued private technology firms. Following recent funding rounds, its valuation has approached the $1 trillion mark, and some investors believe that a public listing could boost the company’s market capitalisation even further.
Investor enthusiasm stems primarily from the belief that artificial intelligence will become the cornerstone of the next decade of technological development. It is precisely the language models developed by OpenAI and Anthropic that are driving the current AI race, enabling the creation of autonomous agents, programming tools and systems that automate office work.
At the same time, the question arises as to whether current valuations are already justified on business grounds. The costs of developing AI models remain enormous. Companies are investing billions of dollars in data centres, GPUs and research. According to reports, OpenAI continues to generate significant operating losses, despite rapidly growing revenues.
It is precisely profitability that remains the biggest question mark for the entire sector. Investors assume that the growing adoption of artificial intelligence will translate into very high margins and stable cash flows in the future. For the time being, however, none of the companies developing so-called ‘frontier models’ has demonstrated a business model that would unequivocally confirm the ability to generate profits on a scale comparable to that of the largest technology companies.
Regulatory issues pose a further challenge. OpenAI is currently facing a growing number of investigations and audits concerning the security of its models and the way it uses user data. Anthropic is also coming under increasing scrutiny from regulators.
Crucially, even a successful IPO does not automatically guarantee inclusion in the major stock market indices. In the case of the US S&P 500, it is not only market capitalisation that is key, but also demonstrating sufficient financial stability and profitability over successive quarters.
For the capital market, the upcoming IPOs will be a test of how investors value the future of artificial intelligence. Supporters of the sector argue that OpenAI and Anthropic are building the infrastructure for the next technological revolution. Sceptics point out that current valuations are based more on expectations than on financial results.
Regardless of which side is right, one thing seems certain. If OpenAI and Anthropic do indeed go public with valuations exceeding one trillion dollars, it will be one of the most spectacular moments in the history of the technology market and further proof of the immense hopes that business is pinning on artificial intelligence today.
